Market Trouble: Investing in the face of uncertainty and plan for the unexpected
Direct from the January 2026 post, "We are optimistic about the economy and the future. However, even if we look back a year from now and say "the market was up", we don't see this as a straight line up." So far, true to form, this has been the case. September delivered uncertainty and a decline in value of many asset classes. What has been the source of this unexpected trouble and how can we invest in the time of uncertainty?
The major theme of war, higher oil prices and the fed rate increase to control inflation is front and center. But behind the scenes, the rate on longer dated bonds had been creeping higher. With the 10 year rate at 4% in March, it continued higher and reached 5% in September and then quickly (in a matter of days) reached north of 5.3%. The weight of increased borrowing costs and the chance for investors to sell certain investments to lock in higher rates is causing volatility among various asset classes.
Normal or Not? We like to use technical analysis to help us prepare in advance and try to create a level of certainty among the unexpected. Though we had expected this sort of volatility through the mid term elections in November based on our analysis, the move in the 10 year bond yield caused more havoc in the fixed income market than the equity market. Thus, our allocation to what are normally ‘less riskier’ investments (think fixed income or dividend paying equity) has been pushed lower. While riskier investments, that had been coming down, have stabilized and attracted new funds from investors.
Will it last? This resetting and movement of funds has led to the decline, but also to opportunities to continue adding to holdings that we feel represent a good value and round out portfolios for the next year or more. Getting through October and continuing to accrue holdings is our theme as we believe it represents the right time to buying. Though rates could continue to spike higher, the current level of the 10 year has hit an area that may create a near term top in this area.
What will deliver the relief? We all know that 'trouble' is a part of everyday life. As Psalm 34:19 speaks the truth, all troubles of the righteous are rectified with Jesus. Even with the recent troubles of the market and through the difficult month of September, we believe we will be delivered from them. Not only spiritually with Jesus on our side, but with the forethought and planning of how we invest your portfolio by working to expect the unexpected and work to create a level of certainty during these uncertain time. Rates on bonds can be volatile. But working to invest to capture yield while focusing on a reversal at key levels where we currently reside can offer a good long term opportunity for portfolio positioning.
Thanks for reading and continue to hang in there when trouble comes your way!
Author: Steve Economopoulos
Published: 10/6/2026
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